HIP-4 outcome contract · #47 · outcome 12
Will BTC trade above 70,000 at 31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC?
How it settles
- Observation
- Hyperliquid BTC mark price, one-minute window ending 16:00:00 UTC
- Rule
- Yes pays 1.00 USDC per share if the mark at settlement is above 70,000.0; otherwise No pays 1.00.
- Expiry
- 31 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC
- Settled by
- Hyperliquid, at expiry
A contract with a similar name can settle on a different price or window. Read the rule, not the ticker.
What your 120 Yes shares can pay
| If… | Paid out | Net of 45.60 cost |
|---|---|---|
| BTC above 70,000 at expiry | 120.00 | +74.40 |
| BTC at or below 70,000 | 0.00 | −45.60 |
| Sell now at the bid (64 of 120 shares fill) | 25.60 | depends on the rest |
The price is what the market pays today, not a probability that BTC ends above 70,000. The payout is fixed; a perp position can still be liquidated before it arrives.
Your position
- Side
- Yes, 120 shares
- Capital locked
- 45.60 USDC
- Average entry
- 0.3800
- Managed by
- You, manualOutcome watch v2 shadows it: no key, no orders
Fees
Buys earn no builder fee. A sale before expiry carries the tested 1 bp; settlement carries none.
Price history
Quotes were captured from 12 Sep, when the contract listed. A backtest before that would be invented, so there is none. Shadow keeps collecting.
Illustrative contract and figures. Proceeds, fee treatment and settlement are shown as the rules state them; in the product each is reconciled against Hyperliquid’s records after settlement. Now: 30 Sep 2026.