Outcome watch
Outcome routine · BTC above 70k on 31 Oct · v2
ShadowIllustrative
No replay: this contract has no history before 12 Sep
A backtest would be invented. The outcome routine is judged on its payoff and in shadow, which has been collecting quotes since the contract listed.
Payoff at settlement for 120 Yes shares
| If… | Paid | Net of cost |
|---|---|---|
| BTC above 70,000 at expiry | 120.00 | +74.40 |
| BTC at or below 70,000 | 0.00 | −45.60 |
A price of 0.41 is what the market pays today, not a 41% probability.
Trading and settlement window
- 12 Sep Contract listed · quotes captured from here
- 30 Sep Today · shadow running
- 30 Oct 16:00 Rule stops entering (24 h before expiry)
- 31 Oct 16:00 Observation window ends · Hyperliquid settles
Illustrative Results for the design preview. They are examples of how results are shown, not the output of a real replay.